National Turf Mail List Request

Yesterday | 2 Days Ago | 3 Days Ago | 4 Days Ago | 5 Days Ago

BOB SELVIN AT HOLLYWOOD PARK FOR

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for SUNDAY

COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.

PASSING RACES: When you see “PASS or” first, my suggestion is to PASS the race because I feel that race is either boring, valueless, is too complicated or has too many question marks. The play is up to you. When I suggest a play first and then indicate or PASS, my suggestion is to lean toward playing, but I'm obviously not crazy about or very interested in that race and it can easily be passed.

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.

PICK THREE’S or PICK FOUR: I also do not play the Pick Three's or Pick Four’s randomly, but judiciously. Sometimes I don't play them at all. I don’t suggest these plays just so I can claim that I hit one the next day.

TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.

MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS TO GET THE MOST OUT OF MY SEMINAR: I provide you with my own FAIR BETTING ODDS on my main contenders in a race. This game is based on VALUE. Comparing the actual track odds to my fair odds and deciding on a play means SOME JUDGMENT ON YOUR PART IS REQUIRED !! A winning player needs to be flexible. OFTEN my top choice(s) could be overbet well below my fair odds and my secondary contenders then could offer much better value. Don’t hesitate to play a nice overlay or PASS races when my choices are being overbet! (Unfortunately, any LATE SCRATCHES of contenders within a given race will make my fair odds INACCURATE.) Always remember… “if you don’t get it, don’t bet it.”

*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!

ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS:

*** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.

ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.

WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: This is my assessment of a fair price on each contender. Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd over bets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds.

TRIFECTAS PLAYS CAN BE MADE MORE AFFORDABLE: They can be turned into fractions of $1 by purchasing .10 cent superfectas instead and including the horses in the third (or show) position in the four position as well. This also makes it more affordable for you to include horses you like. By the way, for the sake of the analysis, $6 is my top amount on any one ticket.

WHAT SEPARATES MY PRODUCT FROM OTHER PURCHASABLE SO. CALIF. HANDICAPPING PRODUCTS AND THE EDGE YOU GET: My fair odds take the entire field into consideration, including non contenders, and normally balance out at about 112% or so. I purposely do this to insure that my fair odds are OVERLAYS after factoring in the state takeout on win wagers which is 15.3%. Racetrack morning lines are normally made by adding 100% probability + 15.3% for takeout + 1% per horse for breakage. In other words, an eight-horse field should total about 123% when converting odds to probability percentages. By considering my fair odds in your handicapping, or, better yet, the adjacent VGB odds, you should be getting at least a 10% edge or more.

What other purchasable So. Calif. handicapping products put their balls on the line and offer BOTH their own BALANCED, fair odds line AND incisive notes, commentary, stats and workout tidbits from colleague clocker Andy Harrington’s workout report?

RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.

I felt it was a very ordinary card (see below) going in and I didn’t suggest any of the horizontal bets. (1^st) Achak paid $4.00; (2^nd) Best Play Van Brit paid $8.20; (9^th) 7-8 exacta paid $27.00; (10^th) Juniper Pass paid $8.80.

COMMENTS-- A very, very ordinary card for closing day. P. Val is off his mounts.

(1^ST) 4 ACHAK on top, no exactas.

ACHAK looks way too strong for this field coming down the hill. He’s third start into his form cycle and shortens up. He’s hit the board four out of his five times on the course against better Working well up to the race with a grade B work on Apr. 11. Rosario gets the mount. Expect a short price. Didn’t want to fiddle with the exacta.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	LEASE OF LIFE	3/1	4/1
3	GALLANT GENT	8/1	10/1
4	ACHAK	3/2	9/5
5	GALLETA MONSTRUO	9/2	6/1
8	ONE UNION	8/1	10/1
	(7 go, 5 contenders)

(2^ND) (BEST PLAY) 2 VAN BRIT on top, exacta box 2-6, 6-2; also 2-5, 6-5 combos; (if 6 PRYTANIA is 5/1 or better consider win play on her as well).

VAN BRIT and Living Our Dreams aren’t exactly speed balls, but in this field of mostly plugs, they may look like it. VAN BRIT towers over these with her win spirit and fondness for the course. Now it’s very evident that something went wrong in her last start as she needed to be vanned off the track. I can’t imagine that the problem was significant, because 12 days later she recorded a nice :59.4h work (grade B). Sheer, sheer speculation that Cerin is taking advantage of that last line and dropping her in class to try to steal a win and he replaces P. Val, who he often uses, with Maldonado. It’s very possible that P. Val’s agent gave Lloyd the call on Hameildaeme before Cerin decided to enter VAN BRIT. No matter. From an inside post with a bit of tactical speed in a paceless race, VAN BRIT should be very tough. Can’t imagine that Cerin would risk a filly who has earned almost $200,000 for him if she was going so bad. She’s simply a 6-year-old who prefers this course and he’s trying to steal a win on the double drop. Second choice Bella Roja, at 3/1 on the program, was herself a vet scratch on Apr. 2. She runs her race, but has been coming up short and has burned some money. Today, it doesn’t look like she’ll get the pace she needs. You can say the same thing about dropper PRYTANIA, who has been a disappointing $40,000 claim for Sadler. But she finds a much easier spot today and switches to Rosario. She’s too big a price at 6/1 on the program.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	ROLLERSKATES	8/1	10/1
2	VAN BRIT	3/1	4/1
3	BELLA ROJA	7/2	9/2
5	HAMEILDAEME	7/2	9/2
6	PRYTANIA	4/1	5/1
7	LIVING OUR DREAMS	12/1	15/1

(3^RD) 5 MEADOW ROAD on top, exactas 5-3, 5-4 & reverse

Thus far money-burning TOKUBETSU gets a likely spot to earn his diploma, but he doesn’t look like a 6/5 shot and perhaps descending to even money. One to beat? Yes. Right price? No. MEADOW ROAD comes out of two very hot races, draws outside of TOKUBETSU and puts blinkers on. He worked super with the hood on Apr. 7 (:59h, grade B+) with “focused power” according to Andy and should make a forward move. Dubber comes out of a hot race and with Jack Reacher perhaps dueling with TOKUBETSU, could come from off the pace with Rosario. Cornpiper is training with some B grade works, but none at 6 furlongs. He’s a home bred…meaning that his connections didn’t pick him out. Good or bad, breeders are stuck with what the dam produces. In this case, Cornpiper was training last fall at Churchill Downs and was entered for maiden $50,000 and scratched. Although he’s training well, most of the Asmussen’s do. I just don’t think he’s one of his better prospects.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	CLINTON	17/1	21/1
2	JACK REACHER	8/1	10/1
3	DUBBER	7/1	9/1
4	TOKUBETSU	8/5	2/1
5	MEADOW ROAD	3/1	4/1
6	CORNPIPER	5/1	6/1

(4^TH) 4 CAFFEINE HIGH on top, exactas 4-6, 4-7 & reverse or PASS.

Poor wagering race. CAFFEINE HIGH broke his maiden against a bad field wearing front bandages, but won as TONS the best considering his trip. Claimed by Ellis, he moves up into the starter condition and switches to turf. He’s worked very well on dirt for Ellis with a B+ work on Apr. 4 and a B on Apr. 11. Purge is an ordinary 9% turf sire. It’s clear that this starter race came up in the book on turf and Ellis decided to go because CAFFEINE HIGH must be doing well and not simply because he couldn’t wait to get him on the grass. Requisition (Pedroza replaces P. Val) and Uncle Greg round out the obvious three choices. ‘Greg hasn’t been out since Nov. 25, has a light tab of only six works, but has place in both of his turf starts. Rosario back on board who won with him on Aug. 22. There’s not a whole lot to choose from in this heat.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	JEFFREY’S GROOVE	8/1	10/1
4	CAFFEINE HIGH	5/2	3/1
6	REQUISITION	3/1	4/1
7	UNCLE GREG	2/1	5/2
8	PALIO PRINCE	15/1	19/1
	(7 go, 5 contenders)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Note: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can’t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes!

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(5^th) Exacta box 7-8-10; look for win bet on any of these three at VGB odds.

Bad group of maiden $20,000’s to deal with. NISUS is third start into his form cycle on an improving pattern for a barn that doesn’t win often, so that’s the caution. GIFTED STUDENT needed his last and is usually at least competitive. Cabo San Lucas has Kerwin John back in the saddle (P. Val named on, but is off mounts today). At least ‘Lucas drops a notch in class, although I’m not sure if there’s a big difference on this circuit between maiden $30,000 and maiden $20,000. NATURALISTE was working super up to his debut for Mandella last January, so it was surprising to see him in for maiden $20,000 in his debut. O’Neill, who subscribes to our workout report, “bit” by claiming him despite the fishy cheap placement by Mandella. It’s taken O’Neill three months to get NATURALISTE back to the races, but he’s good with layoffs (as example, he won with Lime Rock Revenge on Friday who had a short work tab) and this one looks live in this easy spot.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
5	GREENSPAN	15/1	19/1
6	SMOKIN BOMB	10/1	13/1
7	NISUS	3/1	4/1
8	GIFTED STUDENT	9/2	6/1
9	CABO SAN LUCAS	4/1	5/1
10	NATURALISTIC	6/1	8/1

(6^th) (BEST PLAY) 6 REALITY RIDE on top, exactas 6-1, 6-3, 6-5, 3-6

Mandella “throwing away” $425,000 yearling ONE NATION after four starts isn’t a positive sign, but the colt fits this field based on what he’s done thus far. However, on paper, REALITY RIDE is supposed to take this field coast-to-coast on the front end. Will he like the grass? Candy Ride’s offspring are a solid 17% wins on the lawn. Three back, ‘RIDE set a brutal pace going a mile on dirt and was still in the win photo. It’s evident that he has a big pace advantage. It’s just a matter now if he’ll stay the trip on the grass. Rightful Image had tough trip on Mar. 31 and will run much better today with clear sailing. Magic Beam still hasn’t added lasix, but continues to train with verve in the a.m. Always works in B grade fashion.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	RIGHTFUL IMAGE	5/1	6/1
2	SEEKING SOLACE	7/1	9/1
3	ONE NATION	7/2	9/2
5	MAGIC BEAM	8/1	10/1
6	REALITY RIDE	2/1	5/2
8	PARABLE	10/1	13/1

(7^th) PASS or 9 QUALITY STORM on top (check the prices)

With the scratch of Nuclear Missile, Fine and Rare looks like a short price winner on the front end. She was well clear of the third horse in her runner up effort at this level last out and has only two first time starters and a comebacker to beat. Both firsters, Detective Poirot and QUALITY STORM, have shown some ability in the a.m. according to Andy. In fact, ‘Poirot has been finishing nicely in his drills for Hofmans (P. Val isn’t riding, remember), but Hofmans is only 4/58 winning with firsters since 2008. QUALITY STORM has looked good across town and what’s interesting is that Martin Garcia worked him on Apr. 9 and the gelding looked speedy despite slowish final clocking. Also, Drysdale, who is HORRIBLE winning with firsters (1/49 since 2008), took the time to gate break and ease ‘STORM on Apr. 14 and he showed good speed. Note that Drysdale doesn’t always use lasix on his firsters, but IS with QUALITY STORM. Faithful Secret returns off a long layoff with a short work tab. He ran MUCH better than the line looks in his debut and is a threat depending on his fitness for today (only two 5 furlong works and one 6 furlong work, the latter a C+). Despite Drysdale’s horrible record with firsters, I would check the price on QUALITY STORM as an alternative to betting the heavy favorite.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
6	FINE AND RARE	6/5	3/2
7	DETECTIVE POIROT	6/1	8/1
9	QUALITY STORM	4/1	5/1
10	FAITHFUL SECRET	5/1	6/1
	(9 go, 4 contenders)

(8^th) 8 DISTANT SKY & 9 TAMARACK SMARTY co-top choices; exactas 8-2, 8-7, 8-9, 8-12, 9-2, 9-7, 9-8, 9-12

DISTANT SKY looks like he’s finally coming around for Harty and is a still developing 4-year-old. His last race to Kajiwara was a forward move and he should sit a good trip just behind the early pace. TAMARACK SMARTY is second off the layoff with the switch to Rosario and a big work (grade B+) on April 10 coming up to this. It’s a totally wide open race and a case can be made for the other contenders below as well. Format V is sharp and stepping up after winning an own age $50,000 claimer. Vaundell may or may not need another race to get fit. He’s already won on this course. Warning Song had a ton of trouble in his U.S. debut on dirt. He’s on turf today and won a pair of turf races in England.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
2	FORMAT V	4/1	5/1
7	VAUNDELL	9/2	6/1
8	DISTANT SKY	6/1	8/1
9	TAMARACK SMARTY	8/1	10/1
11	SAMMARTINO	6/1	8/1
12	WARNING SONG	7/1	9/1

(9^th) 8 CONCERTO’S THUNDER on top, exactas 8-1, 8-7 & reverse.

Nothing but chalk. My first three fair odds choices look much the best of this field. CONCERTO’S THUNDER and STREETS OF HEAVEN were a nose apart two races back. ‘THUNDER was hounded early on the pace that day despite breaking from the rail going down the chute. He draws outside today and should be able to stalk Peacock Alliance. Of course, that bodes well for consistent STREETS OF HEAVEN, who is training in fine style since being claimed by Mike Pender. Both ‘THUNDER and ‘HEAVEN have run favorably at 7 furlongs. BELO PURSE joins these two and has run two solid races off the Carava claim. There is very little separating these three and that includes the odds.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	BELO PURSE	3/1	4/1
4	RAINGEAR	15/1	19/1
5	MARK OF A WARRIOR (MLU)	6/1	8/1
7	STREETS OF HEAVEN	4/1	5/1
8	CONCERTO’S THUNDER	2/1	5/2
	(8 go, 5 contenders)

(10^th) 10 JUNIPER PASS on top or PASS.

I hate marathons because of the usual phony pace scenarios and the infrequence in which we see them to assess them properly. This one is no different. It may be the last race of the meet, yada, yada, yada, but how can you have a serious opinion about a 1 ¾ race in which they are going to walk the first mile for sure. JUNIPER PASS looks as good as any and is training up to the race in fine style (recent B+) drill. He’s my selection in a race I’m very indiffent about.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	QUINDICI MAN	5/1	6/1
2	HAIMISHY HY	5/1	6/1
3	DAHOUD	7/2	9/2
4	POWER SERIES	12/1	15/1
8	CELTIC NEW YEAR	12/1	15/1
10	JUNIPER PASS	3/1	4/1

PICK THREE’s or PICK FOUR’s (none today)

BOB SELVIN AT HOLLYWOOD PARK FOR

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for SATURDAY

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.

ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS:

RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.

COMMENT-- $63,000 + Pick 6 carryover for today.

I passed one of the ten races. (1^st) Cherokee Heaven paid $3.80; (3^rd) 3-2 exacta paid on four combos paid $16.40; (4^th) American Lady paid $7.60, 3-7 exacta on two combos paid $19.80; (6^th) Whoopsie paid $4.60.

(1^ST) 4 CHEROKEE HEAVEN on top, exactas 4-1, 4-2, 4-5, 5-4; extra ticket 4-5, 5-4

It’s getting “late” for the four 7-year-olds in this race and sharp trainer Marty Jones recognizes this with consistent CHEROKEE HEAVEN, who drops out of the second conditioned allowance ranks for this softer spot on a course he likes. He’s caught three buzzsaws in a row… major stakes winner Caracortado, stakes winner Smokey Lonesome and hard knocking Earnednevergiven in his last three starts. That’s hardly a disgrace finishing close to them compared to this field. His last drill on Apr. 7 was particularly good (B+) despite slow final time. He comes off a two-month break, but he’s run well fresh in the past. El Scorpio is lightning fast and is certain to make the lead. He’s 3/6 on the turf, but prefers the more speed favoring Hollywood Park course. Still, he’s a danger on the front end. Quietly Mine is 0/4 on this hillside course, not an endorsement, but he’s dropping. DANCE WITH GABLE loves this course and should fall into a great trip stalking El Scorpio.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	EL SCORPIO	5/1	6/1
2	QUIETLY MINE	9/2	6/1
4	CHEROKEE HEAVEN	2/1	5/2
5	DANCE WITH GABLES	4/1	5/1
6	FANDINO	6/1	8/1
7	MUNY (MLU)	7/1	9/1

(2^ND) (BEST PLAY) 6 CLUE ME IN on top (prefer win bet), exacta box 1-6, 6-1

On paper, no question that STRAY CAT is clearly the one to beat on recent pace and figures. But he is 1/18 and has squandered six other chances to win at this restricted $12,500 level. CLUE ME IN is second off the layoff for Canani with ten previous workouts that led up to his comeback on Mar. 27. That race was off an Oct., 2008 layoff. The comeback was nothing more than a prep and when CLUE ME IN broke slowly and trailed, Nakatani went through the motions late but the horse galloped out great past the wire. Since, CLUE ME IN blew out in :35.hg “breezing clear of Euroglide (runs later today) in :34.1 and out in :47.1h.” Andy graded it B+ and called it a “terrific” drill. That should sharpen him up and with speed types STRAY CAT and Stu’s Gone Wild inside of him, CLUE ME IN should fall into a great trip with a clean break today and get the job done.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	STRAY CAT	8/5	2/1
2	IT’S SUPERMAN	8/1	10/1
3	SMOKENOMORE	9/2	6/1
4	STU’S GONE WILD	8/1	10/1
5	QUINTONS FLASH	12/1	15/1
6	CLUE ME IN	5/2	3/1

(3^RD) 6 COMPARI on top, solid exacta box 3-6, 6-3; also play 3-2, 6-2 combos

The play here is to try and beat 5/2 morning line second choice Supreme Summit, who is inside, not training with his usual verve and it looks like an experiment by placing him on turf. REGALLY READY is fast developing into a top turf sprinter and is twice proven with wins on this course already. He’s clearly the one to beat and it looks like he’s going to get a lone, front-running trip. COMPARI is 4/4 on this SA turf course, including a win down the hill. He’s also a Gr 2 stakes winner here. He’s run well fresh twice with big wins off the bench for Marty Jones and he’s training great (recent B grade drills). The question is whether Marty is using this race as a prep for more important turf route races at Hollywood Park? If it’s a crackdown, COMPARI can win. Camp Victory is absolutely razor sharp as he steps up to a different world. He’s only beaten older horses once and that was in his last allowance win over Streakin Mohican. This field is way better, but it’s a sign of confidence that Mitchell places him here. His last drill on Apr. 10 was outstanding (grade B+). How many times have we seen Mitchell make a claim and move them up, particularly on the grass? Six go, five contenders.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	SUPREME SUMMIT	5/1	6/1
2	CAMP VICTORY	7/1	9/1
3	REGALLY READY	8/5	2/1
4	GALLANT SON	8/1	10/1
6	COMPARI	5/2	3/1

(4^TH) 3 AMERICAN LADY on top, exacta box 3-7, 7-3

Seven go, but only five contenders. And of those five, the race clearly is AMERICAN LADY or ORIENTATIOUS. They are difficult to separate and deserve to be the first and second odds choices when the crowd gets through betting. AMERICAN LADY is by speed sire Stormy Atlantic (12% first out wins) out of a precocious dam who has been a good producer. The fast and strong Baffert-like works are present, including a big drill in company with SA Derby winner Midnight Interlude on Apr. 4 (B+). Imagine Baffert working a maiden 3-year-old filly with his Derby prospect and she only finished a head back in that 1:11.2h drill. Looking back, AMERICAN LADY had three bullet works and one near bullet work as a 2-year-old last summer, but didn’t make it to the races. She resumed training on Jan. 23 leading up to this. ORIENTATIOUS looks like a runner for Puype and has a ton of speed that should serve her well at 5 1/2 . She’s also got the outside box and Bejarano has been working her. Both of these fillies have been working with B+ works. Either one can win. I’m giving the edge to AMERICAN LADY because of Baffert’s record with firsters and that she has recent gate works over the track, whereas ORIENTATIOUS does not (she’s popped out of the gate without actually working). I expect both of them to show speed.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	FREE RANGE	8/1	10/1
2	ARTEYA	9/2	6/1
3	AMERICAN LADY	9/5	5/2
6	DISTORSIONADA	15/1	19/1
7	ORIENTATIOUS	2/1	5/2

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(5^th) PASS.

This may start the Pick 6 carryover sequence, but that doesn’t mean there’s a reason to play the race itself. I don’t see one. It’s a downhill turf grab bag. Contenders are numbers 1 through 6 headed by the 1 through 4. Don’t want any part of this one.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	NOTHING TO FEAR	6/1	8/1
2	HOT CITIZEN	3/1	4/1
3	FREQUENT FAME	7/2	9/2
4	MARRYMEONEMORETIME	4/1	5/1
5	SIBERIAN HEART	7/1	9/1
6	DISLITLELITEOMINE	12/1	15/1

(6^th) 9 WHOOPSIE on top, exacta box 3-5-9; extra ticket 3-9, 9-3

It’s 5 ½ furlongs and GO SOPHIA puts the blinkers back on that Dominguez took off for her last flat effort in which they tried rating tactics. She’s a pure speed horse and is re-united with Quinonez. The drill will be to “go” and she’s a fit at this level at a generous 5/1 on the program. WHOOPSIE got left at the gate in her debut, so that effort can be dismissed. She ran good enough to win in her second start on Mar. 11, but was worn down by Line One, who came right back to win her next start. If the aforementioned two get into a speed duel, it could set up for She’s All Yours, who showed some like in her second start over the track. She gets a rider upgrade to Talamo today, as well. The first-time starters R C Magic Amy or Sweet Siouxsie could pop up in the mix simply because the field is weak and maybe there’s a pace meltdown. But neither one has done anything eye opening in the a.m. and the ‘Amy also has to overcome the rail draw.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	R C MAGIC AMY	5/1	6/1
3	GO SOPHIA	7/2	9/2
5	SHE’S ALL YOURS	6/1	8/1
6	SWEET SIOUXSIE	12/1	15/1
9	WHOOPSIE	5/2	3/1
10	A GOLDEN JET	8/1	10/1

(7^th) Play 2 VERY FAIR & 4 KING RED at VGB odds or PASS.

Very Fair and California Soldier look like the ones to beat. Very Fair looks like the better gamble, so check for VGB odds. ‘Soldier looks too short a price at 9/5. That simply means I don’t think his price exceeds his probability of winning. It’s an open race. A fast pace looks insure with Via Verde stretching out with Cardiff Giant, King Red and ‘Soldier not far behind. That should suit Very Fair’s just off the pace style. King Red is a longshot possibility. He’s 0/5 on turf, but three placings. His race on Nov. 19 at Hollywood at this mile trip would put him in the mix. He’s been sprinting in all three of his comeback starts, so this might be a change for the better. Nice work on Apr. 11 (grade B).

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
2	VERY FAIR	3/1	4/1
3	CARDIFF GIANT	9/2	6/1
4	KING RED	11/1	14/1
7	VIA VERDE	9/1	11/1
8	CALIFORNIA SOLDIER	3/1	4/1
9	CAHILL COUNTRY	6/1	8/1

(8^th) 2 LUNADA BAY on top, exacta box 1-2, 2-1

Unless Sadler moved Italian Rules way up first off the claim today (a possibility), KAJIWARA and LUNADA BAY should be battling it out for the win. It’s not a great gambling race, that’s for sure, because only five go. So you can’t spread the exacta around and even putting the two favorites together in an exacta play in a five-horse field isn’t the ticket to banner profits. But those two look better. At least both look like they have more “blue sky” ahead of them than hard-knocking Italian Rules. KAJIWARA just won his first allowance condition on turf whereas LUNADA BAY won his on dirt. Both went wire to wire. Both are lightly raced developing 4-year-olds in great hands of Asumussen and Baffert. ‘BAY is a better morning line price, especially compared to my fair odds and is drawn a post outside of KAJIWARA. The coin toss goes to LUNADA BAY.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	KAJIWARA	2/1	5/2
2	LUNADA BAY	9/5	5/2
3	ITALIAN RULES	7/2	9/2
5	EUROGLIDE (MLU)	9/1	11/1
6	BOOTED	8/1	10/1

(9^th) 1 COZY ROSIE on top, exactas 1-2, 1-4, 1-6, 6-1; extra ticket 1-6, 6-1

Once again, we’re basically dealing with the logical horses. COZY ROSIE was impressive in her comeback winning the Buena Vista and has the pedigree to stay this 1 ¼ mile trip. She trained super non Apr. 9 and that was a mile move to put some “bottom” into her, grade B+ from Andy “looking like she can run forever.” That’s good enough for me. Bejarano jumps off Malibu Pier (which surprised trainer Carla Gaines) in favor of TURNING TOP. The two battled on Mar. 19 in the Santa Ana, but if you’ll recall, TURNING TOP took a bad step or slipped about 5/16, losing momentum. That may or may not have cost her the race, but it’s clear that ‘TOP can go this far. She was second in the Gr 1 Yellow Ribbon at this trip and won the Beverly Hills at 1 ¼ as well.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	COZY ROSIE	2/1	5/2
2	MALIBU PIER	7/2	9/2
3	CALLE VISTA	8/1	10/1
4	ANDINA	7/1	9/1
5	RESTLESS SOUL	17/1	21/1
6	TURNING TOP	5/2	3/1

DAILY DOUBLE (races 9 & 10) 1, 6 to 2, 10

(10^th) (BEST PLAY) 2 JADE’S SONG on top, exactas 2-1, 2-7, 2-10, 10-1, 10-2, 10-7; extra ticket 2-10, 10-2

Wrapping up the Pick 6, throw in 2, 7, 10 and consider 1, 6 if you can afford it. For the race itself, JADE’S SONG returns from the layoff as a new acquisition for hot trainer Mike Puype. It’s a very positive barn switch and she comes up to the race with some sharp grade B works in her recent resume. Look for her to show speed in this spot and Talamo, one of Puype’s “go to” riders is on board. Benicia Beauty isn’t all that much, but against this field…that isn’t the case. She’s a big fit, although she has lost ground from the third call to fourth call in three of her four races. EASY ON MY HEART drops in class and gets the outside box. She’s was overmatched in her first two races, both tough spots. Could be very tough in here and is also a top use in the exacta. (If JADE’S SONG is overbet, check the price on EASY ON MY HEART, could be worth a win play as well).

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	VUMBURA	7/1	9/1
2	JADE’S SONG	2/1	5/2
6	SWEET CONSOLIDATOR	8/1	10/1
7	BENICIA BEAUTY	3/1	4/1
10	EASY ON MY HEART	4/1	5/1

PICK FOUR (1-2-3-4) 4-5 w/ 6 w/ 2-3-6 w/ 3-7

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

FOUR STRAIGHT WINNING BEST PLAY HIGHLIGHTS FROM LAST SUNDAY AND THURSDAY:

FROM THURSDAY, APR. 14…..

GET FUNKY PAID $6.40

(4^TH) (BEST PLAY) 6 GET FUNKY on top, exacta box 1-6, 6-1, 6-4

DENIM N’ MOTION PAID $15.80 off my 5/1 FAIR ODDS… 9-10-5 BEST PLAY TRIFECTA RETURNED $949.80 / $432 INVEST

(6^th) (BEST PLAY) 8 DUDA TEN & 9 DENIM N’ MOTION co-top choices; exacta box 3-8-9; extra ticket 3-9, 9-3; trifectas (three tickets) $6 3-8-9 w/ 3-5-8-9-10 w/ 3-5-7-8-9-10; $4 3-8-9 w/ 3-8-9 w/ 5-7-10; $ 3-8-9 w/ 5-7-10 w/ 3-8-9

The play here is against the two 7/2 m/l fillies Candys Girl and Ringmistress, who ran two-three in a very modest maiden race on the course Mar. 18. Maybe the are underneath uses, but they both look beatable for the win. DUDA TEN is back sprinting and working in improved fashion for Julio with two recent grade B works on Mar. 30 and Apr. 7. Her race two back to Lunch Time Diva is good enough to win. Yeah, DENIM N’ MOTION hasn’t been out since July 2, 2009 and “the book” says she’s going to need a race…or two. However, she make a very positive trainer change to Marty Jones and she’s had 15 workouts on the comeback trail, including EIGHT at least at five furlongs or six. My take is that she’s a $225,000 purchase that needs to “get going” now as a 4-year-old and not waste races. Her works are B- and typical of a Jones pattern. Looking her previous history up as a 2-year-old under trainer Gary Sherlock, she had a few best of the morning drills, which was probably why she was 9/2 in her racing debut on July 2, 2009. It’s apparent to me that this is a WEAK field for the level and that after 15 workouts, Jones has her fit enough to win this modest heat. HIGHLY COMPOSED is another longshot with a good look. Far and away the best “shot” race on the card.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
3	HIGHLY COMPOSED	5/1	6/1
5	CANDYS GIRL	5/1	6/1
7	HONDO’S WAY	12/1	15/1
8	DUDA TEN	3/1	4/1
9	DENIM N’ MOTION	5/1	6/1
10	RINGMISTRESS (MLU)	6/1	8/1

MY ONLY TWO HORIZONTAL SUGGESTED PLAYS ON THURSDAY’S CARD…. RETURNED $392 AND $1,379.60

PICK THREE (4-5-6) 1-4-5-6 w/ 1-3-6 w/ 3-8-9; 6 w/ 1-6 w/ 3-8-9 << BOTH TICKETS HIT (6-1-9) $392 RETURN / $84 INVEST

PICK FOUR (5-6-7-8) 1-3-6 w/ 3-8-9 w/ 1-3-4 w/ 3-7-8; 1-6 w/ 3-8-9 w/ 1-3 w/ 3-7-8 < < FIRST TICKET HIT (1-9-4 w/ 1-3-4-5-7 due to scratches) $1,379.60 RETURN ($172.45 for .50 cents x 8) ON $234 INVEST

AND FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY (04/10) BOTH WINNING BEST PLAYS:

(6^TH) (BEST PLAY) 2 STATE GATHERING on top, exacta box 1-3, 3-1 < < WON PAID $7.40

(8^th) (BEST PLAY) 2 SURREY STAR on top, exactas 2-4, 2-6, 2-7 & reverse < < WON PAID $7.60, 2-6 BP EXACTA PAID $18.00

BOB SELVIN AT HOLLYWOOD PARK FOR

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for FRIDAY

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.

ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS:

RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.

It was a true NOTHING of a Friday card in which I passed three races and had “or PASS” next to a fourth. Half the card. Expectations were low as noted below in my pre-card COMMENT to users and a day to keep the bankroll in your pocket. (8^th) Wild Cat Lore paid $4.80.

COMMENT— Despite a big day yesterday, expectations are low for this pretty bad card.

(1^ST) 5 MONTELLANO on top or PASS.

Jockey Anne Sanguinetti is poised to get her first picture taken at the meet if she can guide obvious heavy favorite MONTELLANO around the track. Drawn outside with good speed, MONTELLANO turned in strong B+ work on Apr. 5 looking “razor sharp” for trainer Mark Glatt, who is a poor 2/36 first off the claim. Perhaps that stat can be ignored with only three other horses to beat and considering the horse MONTELLANO lost to last time came right back to win. Yawn.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	LIME ROCK REVENGE	8/1	10/1
3	FIRST STRIKE	7/2	9/2
4	CHINESE TRAILS	5/2	3/1
5	MONTELLANO	1/1	7/5

(2^ND) PASS.

Weak horses. Weak trainers. Favorite Dancing Tiger looks too short a price at even money on the morning line and, in fact, I made Sexy Melody my fair odds favorite. If you decide to play, watch the betting on this one. You may get VGB odds on one of the others. Six go, but only four contenders.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
3	DANCING TIGER	5/2	3/1
4	WICKED TRIP	3/1	4/1
5	SEXY MELODY	2/1	5/2
7	GIVEITUPFORTHELADY	4/1	5/1

(3^RD) PASS or 1 TASHZARA on top.

Money burning TASHZARA lands an easy spot to break through and finally earn her diploma. But you could have said that about her last two starts, too. She’s been second five times now in eight starts. Even though she’s off a two-month freshener, she’s going to be bet even shorter than my 7/5 fair odds. This is one of those races I just “turn the page” on. I don’t care if she wins at some deflated price, nor do I have any great feeling on any of the others. Some will look at Great Passion, the half sister to Mandella’s top grass horse Champ Pegasus. I would say yes, take a look. But she’s asked to go from dirt sprints to a turf route and you’re only getting 4/1 ? That looks a little short price-wise. Mutually Benefit has finished behind Tashzara in their last two meetings, but not far behind. She could possibly turn the tables. Check the odds on all.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	TASHZARA	7/5	9/5
2	GREAT PASSION	6/1	8/1
3	LAST STING	12/1	15/1
4	MUTUALLY BENEFIT	7/2	9/2
5	SO SHE DANCES	7/1	9/1
7	ROXANNE O	10/1	13/1

(4^TH) Exactas 2-3, 2-5, 2-6, 5-2, 5-3, 5-6; extra ticket 2-5, 5-2

My idea here would be to simply play against the 2/1 m/l price on Fairway Road. It’s too short. Contender, absolutely, but at 2/1, no. ANGEL’S SHARE and CHURCH AVENUE have their flaws as well, but they are consistent and are better prices. Also, as far as Fairway Road, you’ve got to wonder why trainer Pete Miller dropped her from $40,000 to $20,000 (and she lost that race at 3/2 odds to River Glow). ‘SHARE and ‘AVENUE were one-two two races back on Feb. 26 on wet fast. They are both dropping down. ‘SHARE hails from the red hot Asmussen barn. ‘AVENUE has more speed and is third start into her form cycle (or is it the impossible dream for jockey Anne Sanguinetti win both the 1^st and 4^th races?).

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	FLASHY TRAVELER	7/1	9/1
2	ANGEL’S SHARE	5/2	3/1
3	FAIRWAY ROAD	7/2	9/2
4	YOU CAN DREAM	10/1	13/1
5	CHURCH AVENUE	4/1	5/1
6	RIVER GLOW	9/2	6/1

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(5^th) (BEST PLAY) 5 NOVERRE’S VISION on top, exactas 5-2, 5-4, 5-8 & reverse.

The play here is against 5/2 m/l favorite Blue Grass Music who is not training particularly well of late coupled with trainer Tom Proctor’s horses underachieving at the meet. NOVERRE’S VISION is the best price shot on a bad card. She had her problems as a 3-year-old, but her race three back on GG turf was BTL with a very wide trip. She’s come back for Cassidy with two dirt races in her current form cycle. Back on turf today after getting those two preps under her belt, she’s really picked up her training of late with a pair of recent grade B works. She makes a positive jock switch to Reyes as well. READY GO JAYLO, blinkers on, is apt to run much better for the hot Puype barn. Off two months, she’s prepped well in the a.m. leading up to this. ONE BAD ROMANCE, also blinkers on, will most likely make the running. She’s first time turf for Mitchell, always dangerous, and ‘ROMANCE is my mild 5/2 fair odds favorite, not Blue Grass Music, the m/l favorite. I would be sure to cover the reverse end of the exacta play above.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	BLUE GRASS MUSIC	9/2	6/1
2	TEAM BUILDER	4/1	5/1
3	SHE’SAWONTONTOMATO	17/1	21/1
4	REDDY GO JAYLO	3/1	4/1
5	NOVERRE’S VISION	10/1	13/1
8	ONE BAD ROMANCE	5/2	3/1

BEST PLAY DAILY DOUBLE (races 5 & 6) 5-4 combo plus 2-4, 4-4, 8-4, 5-1, 5-5 (six total combos)

(6^th) (BEST PLAY) 4 WESTERN SMOKE on top, exactas 4-1, 4-2, 4-5, 4-6, 5-4

Favored Mensa Heat has run three good ones in a row, the last a new Beyer top with a perfect trip. Today he’s down on the rail and don’t think he’s going to run back to his last race. WESTERN SMOKE set blistering fractions for $20,000 in last and gets off the rail today. On paper, he’s going to clear this field again and could be long gone on the front end. Like that Asmussen is bumping him up a notch in class instead of dropping him. LONE JUSTICE is NOT as good as the other contenders. He doesn’t have much in his resume. But what he does have is 8/1 odds, third start into his form cycle, a barn winning races and Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. He’s interesting because his return race two back was at 7 furlongs and he showed good speed. His next was down the hill, which I can ignore but simply assume it advanced his conditioning. He’s got a B work on Apr. 6 coming up to this and, unlike MENSA or NO GRANDE or DAVE’S PACEMAKER, he’s a 4-year-old with only 12 starts.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	MENSA HEAT	5/2	3/1
2	NO GRANDE	8/1	10/1
3	MAYOR MARV (MLU)	6/1	8/1
4	WESTERN SMOKE	3/1	4/1
5	LONE JUSTICE	6/1	8/1
6	DAVE’S PACEMAKER	9/2	6/1

(7^th) PASS.

Only five go and RIP (reputation induced phenomenon) Rumor will be a short price first time turf. She’s off a two-month layoff with a vet scratch on Mar. 27, but whatever the problem was, it was minor, because she worked 5f four days later. What Rumor has in her favor is that she looks much the fastest as far as early speed and she should control the running. She’ll have to beat French import Rosehill Dew, who broke her maiden at Deauville against 15 other rivals and then came back to run second in allowance race at Saint Cloud. They are two of the big tracks in France, so her resume looks good. She’s also been in training her since early January with a work tab peppered by grade B and B- drills. Up in Time has a prep race under her belt in the slow paced China Doll. She’s back sprinting, as she was doing at Newmarket with a 7-length win against 19 other rivals. Only five go. I don’t need to take the short price on Rumor…I would let her win without me… and I’m conflicted about the imports, both who are promising.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	RUMOR	3/2	9/5
2	FIFTH AVENUE	10/1	13/1
3	FORTY PACES	10/1	13/1
4	ROSEHILL DEW	5/2	3/1
6	UP IN TIME	3/1	4/1

(8^th) 1 WILD CAT LORE on top or PASS.

I have nothing positive to say about any of these. This field would be better suited for maiden $12,500, but they don’t write those. Don’t forget it’s 7 furlongs, not 5 ½ or 6. WILDCAT LORE might be better suited to that trip, so she gets the call…rail and all. A stinker of a race on a stinker of a card.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	WILD CAT LORE	3/1	4/1
2	COASTAL CATHY	3/1	4/1
3	NIP OF GOLD	9/2	6/1
7	GOLDEN TRANQUILITY	5/1	6/1
8	GREAT BERNARDINE	8/1	10/1

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

FOUR STRAIGHT WINNING BEST PLAY HIGHLIGHTS FROM LAST SUNDAY AND THURSDAY:

FROM THURSDAY, APR. 14…..

GET FUNKY PAID $6.40

(4^TH) (BEST PLAY) 6 GET FUNKY on top, exacta box 1-6, 6-1, 6-4

DENIM N’ MOTION PAID $15.80 off my 5/1 FAIR ODDS… 9-10-5 BEST PLAY TRIFECTA RETURNED $949.80 / $432 INVEST

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
3	HIGHLY COMPOSED	5/1	6/1
5	CANDYS GIRL	5/1	6/1
7	HONDO’S WAY	12/1	15/1
8	DUDA TEN	3/1	4/1
9	DENIM N’ MOTION	5/1	6/1
10	RINGMISTRESS (MLU)	6/1	8/1

MY ONLY TWO HORIZONTAL SUGGESTED PLAYS ON THURSDAY’S CARD…. RETURNED $392 AND $1,379.60

PICK THREE (4-5-6) 1-4-5-6 w/ 1-3-6 w/ 3-8-9; 6 w/ 1-6 w/ 3-8-9 << BOTH TICKETS HIT (6-1-9) $392 RETURN / $84 INVEST

AND FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY (04/10) BOTH WINNING BEST PLAYS:

(6^TH) (BEST PLAY) 2 STATE GATHERING on top, exacta box 1-3, 3-1 < < WON PAID $7.40

(8^th) (BEST PLAY) 2 SURREY STAR on top, exactas 2-4, 2-6, 2-7 & reverse < < WON PAID $7.60, 2-6 BP EXACTA PAID $18.00

BOB SELVIN AT HOLLYWOOD PARK FOR

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for THURSDAY

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.

ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS:

RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.

NO FAIR ODDS FOR 2-YEAR-OLD RACES UNTIL THEY GO 4 ½ FURLONGS.

This turned into a surprisingly big day for payoffs. I passed two of the eight races (passing the 1^st despite a decent push on $10.20 winner Son of America).

Payoffs of $949.80, $392 and $1,379.60 on today’s card!

In the other six, Best Play Get Funky paid $6.40; (5^th) 1-6 main punch exacta paid $18.20; (6^th) I made a great case for co-top Best Play Denim N’ Motion despite coming off a July 2, 2009 layoff. She obliged to pay a nice $15.80 off my 5/1 fair odds with the worst possible result trifecta (favorites running two-three behind her) coming back $949.80 on a $432 investment.

I only played two horizontal bets and both turned big profits.

Pick Three (4-5-6) 6-1-9 came back $392 on an $84 investment

Pick Three (5-6-7-8) 1-9-4 w/ 1,3,4,5,7 (due to scratches) came back $1,379.60 ($172.45 for .50 cent x 8 ($4) as I had the 3, 7 in the (8^th race) / $234 investment

(1^ST) PASS.

The opener is a mix unraced fillies and colts and the workout information from Andy isn’t that glowing on any of them. In essence, this is a bad field without a workout standout. SON OF AMERICA appears to be the best of a poor lot based on a B drill on Mar. 16 and another B on Apr. 5 (:37.2hg time was off as last ¼ in smart :23.3h). Does that put HER (Son is a she) in the winner’s circle? Watch the betting. MISS FITZY draws the rail, which isn’t a great spot for a baby down the chute, but she’s trained by Kitchingham, who is dangerous with firsters and over the years, he’s won a lot of races using Martin Pedroza on board. REAL DREAM is by a useful sire and has a B- gate drill on Apr. 10 for Dollase, who used to be one of the more reliable trainers in So. Calif. winning with firsters. However, he hasn’t won with one in a long time and, in fact, is in an overall drought winless at the meet.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	MISS FITZY
2	SON DE AMERICA
7	REAL DREAM
8	JOCA QUEEN
9	COMPASS ROCK

(2^ND) 5 PART TIME LUCK on top, no exactas or PASS.

Keep in mind, my odds line balances at about 112%, which is much lower than the morning line. This is to more easily identify true overlays. As you can see from my line here, there are no bargains comparing my odds to the m/l. So that’s the explanation. It’s a close race and it’s at 5 ½ furlongs. Maybe shortening up helps speedball Midnight Rage stick around longer after likely needing her last off an Aug. 4, 2010 layoff. But it’s more likely that win type PARK TIME LUCK keeps her in range from the outside, gets a clear run and wears her down. ‘LUCK does not sport a known workout since her last race on Mar. 19, but then again she’s still above the $25,000 claiming price Carava took her for and, it’s possible she worked and was missed on the tab. All the Love seems at the top of her game now, but will shortening up to 5 ½ hinder her closing style?

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	ONEFUNSONOFAGUN	3/1	4/1
2	ULTRA AWESOME	5/1	6/1
3	MIDNIGHT RAGE	8/1	10/1
4	ALL THE LOVE	3/1	4/1
5	PART TIME LUCK	2/1	5/2

(3^rd) PASS.

Nothing here of interest. Favored Mr. Saturdaynight is no bargain at 8/5…it’s more a commentary on the others. Also, he has only one workout in the last 41 days and that was on Apr. 4 (grade B-, Talamo up) Sky Thrill is a sprinter stretching out and if Pedroza doesn’t try to get cute, ‘Thrill is going to make the lead here and it could be a soft one on the front end. He’s been running against much cheaper up north, but does win races. Maybe he gets brave on the front end at a price?

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	GOLDEN AUGUSTO	11/1	14/1
3	SKY THRILL	7/2	9/2
4	ROCK SOLID KING	3/1	4/1
5	MR. SATURDAYNIGHT	5/2	3/1
6	MANOFGOLD	4/1	5/1

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(4^TH) (BEST PLAY) 6 GET FUNKY on top, exacta box 1-6, 6-1, 6-4

GET FUNKY has a right to have a lost a few steps. After all, he’s a senior citizen (8) with 38 starts. His comeback race three back was solid, but he’s run flat in his last two since. However, the last was on dirt. Dropping a notch today, he comes up to the race with his best workout since returning from the Sept. 6 layoff. That was a :59.3h drill on Apr. 9 (grade B+). So there’s still some life in his legs. His foes have some flaws. Speedy TRUMPET PLAYER JAY was claimed back by Mark Glatt, always a positive sign. And you know the program…switch to P. Val and ‘JAY is going to try and use his speed from the inside. Worked well on Mar. 28 (grade B) and on Apr. 6 (grade B+) for Glatt. P. Val will send, especially in a race pretty much devoid of early speed. However, ‘JAY’s flaw is that he’s 0-7 on turf with just one third. Leandros at 9/5 is worth playing against. He’s never been a big win type and he’s 1/19 on turf (four seconds). Yes It’s a Cat is back on turf, the surface he’s made most of his living on. He’s worth using underneath.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	TRUMPET PLAYER JAY	3/1	4/1
2	MAJESTIC DIAMOND	8/1	10/1
4	YES IT’S A CAT	7/1	9/1
5	LEANDROS	3/1	4/1
6	GET FUNKY	2/1	5/2

(5^th) 6 DEPTH on top, exactas 6-1, 1-6 (main punch); also 1-3, 6-3 smaller

Free From My Ex is going to try to steal this 7-furlong race on the front end. He should get loose and perhaps he stays the trip. But more likely is that one of the stretch runners DELUXE BUS or DEPTH (or both) wear him down. ‘BUS is dropping into a claimer and a much easier spot third start into his form cycle. DEPTH adds blinkers after two starts at this maiden $30,000 level, the last a much improved third finishing strongly. This race looks very close. Slight edge to DEPTH with the better draw and the new blinkers.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	DELUXE BUS	2/1	5/2
3	FREE FROM MY EX	4/1	5/1
4	TRASTEVERE	5/1	6/1
5	WON’T STOP DANCIN	10/1	13/1
6	DEPTH	5/2	3/1

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
3	HIGHLY COMPOSED	5/1	6/1
5	CANDYS GIRL	5/1	6/1
7	HONDO’S WAY	12/1	15/1
8	DUDA TEN	3/1	4/1
9	DENIM N’ MOTION	5/1	6/1
10	RINGMISTRESS (MLU)	6/1	8/1

(7^th) 3 UH OH BANGO on top, exactas 3-1, 3-4, 1-3

Chalky and a small field. UH OH BANGO routed against some good 3-year-olds last year and is third start into his form cycle after two good efforts to start his 4-year-old campaign. Grade B work onn Apr. 2 leading up to this and should be primed to win this condition. LUCKY PRIMO exits the same race as ‘BANGO won by El Martillo and did the dirty work on the front end setting a very fast pace. No question, ‘PRIMO is going to try runaway tactics again here and looks to face less pace pressure. He turned in a sharp B+ drill on Apr. 4 and Bejarano gets the mount. If ‘BANGO doesn’t get to him, ‘PRIMO can steal it. Preamble looks like he’s getting good for Mandella, but didn’t beat much in his first condition allowance win on Mar. 13. But he’s got room to improve. Advice was a Grade 2 winner as a 3-year-old and may be rounding back to form. But 4/1 looks too short a price to have to come from far back.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	LUCKY PRIMO	3/1	4/1
2	YANKEE STATION	5/1	6/1
3	UH OH BANGO	9/5	5/2
4	PREAMBLE	7/2	9/2
5	ADVICE (MLU)	7/1	9/1

(8^th) 7 IMPERATRIZ on top, exacta box 7-8, 8-7

Ugly nitecap with only four contenders. By default and not because she’s some great shakes, IMPERATRIZ gets the nod coming out of sprints to a route and having enough speed to sit behind Fire and Spice. That could be enough because her other three main rivals do not have her kind of zip. SOCIAL EVENT is dropping and although she’s a diminunitive sort, may like the added distance to a mile.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	LUCKY SIS	5/1	6/1
3	TIZ O’ GOLD	5/2	3/1
7	IMPERATRIZ	9/5	5/2
8	SOCIAL EVENT	9/2	6/1

PICK THREE (4-5-6) 1-4-5-6 w/ 1-3-6 w/ 3-8-9; 6 w/ 1-6 w/ 3-8-9

PICK FOUR (5-6-7-8) 1-3-6 w/ 3-8-9 w/ 1-3-4 w/ 3-7-8; 1-6 w/ 3-8-9 w/ 1-3 w/ 3-7-8

BOB SELVIN AT HOLLYWOOD PARK FOR

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for SUNDAY

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.

ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS:

RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.

NO FAIR ODDS FOR 2-YEAR-OLD RACES UNTIL THEY GO 4 ½ FURLONGS.

I passed two of the nine races. In the other seven, (2^nd) 4-5 two combo exacta paid $28.20; (4^th) Best Play State Gathering paid $7.40; (8^th) Best Play Surrey Star paid $7.60, 2-6 BP exacta paid $18.00.

(1^ST) PASS (or see below)

If there’s a reason to play this race at all, it’s to try and beat 8/5 favorite Champagne Topper. It is clearly evident to one and all that Champagne Topper is light years faster early than the rest of this field. What’s also clearly apparent is that he expends his energy early and whether he can be rateable is a guess. Trainer Paula Capestro is competent, but winning two turn turf races isn’t her specialty. She switches rider to Bryce Blanc, known for his more patient handling. Perhaps the jock change is an effort to get the ‘Topper to relax. Blanc is also riding four pounds over the entry weight of 113. I will allow ‘Topper to beat me at 8/5 or thereabouts despite the threat of him wiring the field. Run Candy Run is attempting a stretch out from winning a 5-furlong race against stopper Cabo San Lucas to a mile turf race. He’s certainly bred to for the added distance, but 5/2 seems too short. And P. Val is riding at 119 pounds, six over the 113 entry weight.

What I would do is play against both program favorites (assuming the crowd follows suit) simply because of their low odds and look for VGB win bets on ORBACH, LEYVA MAN or WARREN’S WEARHOUSE. The appeal of ORBACH is that he’s bred to really like the turf and has only one start…a slow win two months ago up north on the Tapeta. He hasn’t proven himself a total bum. Any of those three might be inflated prices is the crowd chunks it in on ‘Topper and ‘Run. I would play the two best prices of those three compared to my fair odds. Of course, you can also sit out this race and pass.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	REGAL FEVER	12/1	15/1
2	ORBACH	9/2	6/1
3	LEYVA MAN	4/1	5/1
4	CHAMPAGNE TOPPER	3/1	4/1
5	RUN CANDY RUN	4/1	5/1
6	WARREN’S WAREHOUSE	9/2	6/1

(2^ND) 5 GUTSHOT STRAIGHT on top, exacta box 4-5, 5-4.

GUTSHOT STRAIGHT looks like a short price in here off the layoff. Coming off the bench doesn’t seem to matter much with Miller trainees as he has won several races (Joyful Success one example) at the meet off similar. The work pattern is healthy and ‘STRAIGHT is entered in this maiden $40,000 not to be claimed. In other words, Miller is protecting his investment…at least for this race. The three firsters all are working fast, but TALES OF TIGGER has the strongest pattern, especially with a :46.2hg work back on Jan. 27, second best of 48 on the day. He’s also by productive first out sire Chapel Royal, who gets about 14% debut winners. In a six-horse field with a 7/5 shot, you can spread the exacta much. You Bettor Beware looks like the next option. The latter showed good zip in his :47.1hg drill (grade B) on Apr. 6. But the Craig Dollase barn has been in freezer for this meet.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT>
1	YOU BETTOR BEWARE	6/1	8/1
2	CADILLAC COACH	6/1	8/1
3	FREE TIME	5/1	6/1
4	TALES OF TIGGER	7/2	9/2
5	GUTSHOT STRAIGHT	7/5	9/5

(3^RD) 3 OUR BELLINI BIKINI on top, exactas 3-1, 3-5, 1-3

The three chalks dominate the small field. OUR BELLINI BIKINI is second off the layoff for O’Neill on a two-level drop to the bottom. Based on her light work tab between her previous race on Jan. 28 and the last out on Mar. 29, O’Neill needed to freshen her and she should benefit from the outing. She’s got a B- work since “moving fluidly” so that a positive. On paper, if Pedroza doesn’t get cute, she should make the running. DEXTERA is route to sprint with a big drop. It’s just questionable whether she wants to pass horses. Against better, she usually loses ground from the third call to the fourth call. Kahlua Mist certainly looks improved off the Cerin claim three back. She beat softer…a restricted nw-2 field…at this level last out with an easy trip, but did show better early zip thanks to switching to P. Val. In any event, this is not a get rich race.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	DEXTERA	9/5	5/2
3	OUR BELLINI BIKINI	2/1	5/2
4	JUSTINCREDIBLE	12/1	15/1
5	KAHLUA MIST	7/2	9/2
6	JUST CALL’ER	10/1	13/1

(4^TH) (BEST PLAY) 3 STATE GATHERING on top, exacta box 3-1, 1-3

New gelding STATE GATHERING has been working in company and holding his own with fellow Callaghan barnmate Clarke Lane, who almost sprung a 30/1 upset in that tough allowance race last Saturday (Apr. 3) with Uncle Sam and Wilburn. That’s a pretty good sign, especially since Rosario has been riding all of Callaghan’s live horses and he’s on board ‘GATHERING today. And consider this, despite some clouded form in England, ‘GATHERING ran against some representative size fields, is a new gelding (as first mentioned) and gets Lasix. Moreover, unlike favorite THE HUNT IS ON, he hasn’t yet been beaten for $25,000 nw-2 lifetime, which ‘ON has in his last two starts. Boulder Creek or B’s Lucky Strike are the next options if they favorites don’t run one-two.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	THE HUNT IS ON	9/5	5/2
3	STATE GATHERING	5/2	3/1
4	BOULDER CREEK	6/1	8/1
6	FORWARD COMMITMENT	10/1	13/1
7	B’S LUCKY STRIKE	6/1	8/1
8	UNUSUAL ENCOUNTER	12/1	15/1

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(5^th) 1 SLEWS DARK KNIGHT on top, exactas 1-6, 1-7, 1-8 & reverse

TRUENO’s figures are simply better than this field and you have to admire his consistency. He’s been second five out of his last six starts. Maybe today’s his day, but most handicappers find it hard to trust (and wager with confidence) on this type. Promising many times, but not delivering. And he’s had 21 chances. Hard to play, but hard to throw out knowing that he’s faster (thus far) than the rest of this field. SLEWS DARK KNIGHT may not be a world beater, but he’s on a two-sprint stretch out pattern for French with a pedigree (by Event of the Year) that should handle this trip. He’s drawn inside with none of the horses drawn outside him having his kind of early speed. On paper, with a clean start, ‘KNIGHT should scoot into the first turn and make the running. Is that good enough to make him win? At 9/1 or so or better, I’m going to find out. The French-Bisono t-j combination combined for huge $50 longshot winner Magicallytown who we had recently here on the analysis.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	SLEWS DARK NIGHT	9/1	11/1
3	SOPHOMORIC VENTURE	10/1	13/1
6	TRUENO	9/5	5/2
7	AFLEET COWBOY	7/2	9/2
8	FULL STRENGTH	3/1	4/1
10	GO GO OLMO	25/1	31/1

(6^th) 3 ADAM SUANCES on top, exactas 3-1, 3-4, 1-3

It’s a real coin toss between HE’S A DANCE STAR and ADAM SUANCES, who were inches apart on Mar. 19 finished second and third behind Warrens Tony R. ‘STAR made the running and did the dirty work that day, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. ‘SUANCES came at least six wide into the stretch and lost valuable ground. He’s third start into his form cycle and has a B+ work on Apr. 1 leading up to this. They’re close, took, on my fair odds, but ‘SUANCES may start at the better price based on the morning line, which I have reversed on my fair odds. Lighlty raced 3-year-old TRIBAL WARRIOR is first-time turf in from Turf Paradise. He looks much cheaper, but has good early speed and is by productive turf sire Tribal Rule. Perhaps he’s got room to improve and so worth throwing in at 12/1 on the line vs. my 8/1 fair odds. If nothing else, he figures to pester Itssultryonthecape on the front end, insuring a fast pace.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	HE’S A DANCE STAR	3/1	4/1
2	ITSSULTRYINTHECAPE	6/1	8/1
3	ADAM SUANCES	5/2	3/1
4	TRIBAL WARRIOR	8/1	10/1
7	ROARING TIMES	12/1	15/1
8	WARRENS SUMMERGOLD MLU	6/1	8/1

(7^th) PASS.

Bad morning line price on Blingboy, who will be nowhere close to 7/2. He’s a big morning line underlay. I’m going to sit this one out.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	BRERETON PARK	9/2	6/1
2	BLINGBOY (MLU)	9/1	11/1
4	STU’S GONE WILD	6/1	8/1
5	CLASSY LION	5/1	6/1
6	BASIC STRATEGY	5/1	6/1
8	WHOLELOTACONGRATS	5/2	3/1

(8^th) (BEST PLAY) 2 SURREY STAR on top, exactas 2-4, 2-6, 2-7 & reverse

Favorite MAJOR ART just came off a 2 ½ month layoff to win nicely over the course in beating a first condition allowance field. The effort was good considering the layoff and it was his first try two-turning, but the race itself wasn’t much with five horses finishing on the wire together. He’s worked well out of the race and better perhaps can be expected. But I suspect he’s going to be overbet. And yes, MAJOR ART and SURREY STAR have met before. It was in England in the Gr II Vintage Stakes. SURREY STAR was 33/1 that day and rank. MAJOR ART was 5/1 and finished third. The English liked ‘ART much better than day. But then ‘STAR went on to place in a couple of Gr III stakes. He was bought by Cassidy with some expectations. He’s run him in three consecutive tough stakes. His effort to Comma to the Top on turf would beat this field and I suspect that he’s going to run back to it today. He’s training super with a B+ turf drill on Mar. 31 leading up to this and he’s back on the lawn today. The wild card is French import INSCRUTABLE, who ran well fresh twice in France (including winning his debut at small track Compiegne). This 1 1/8 distance may work to his liking and Rosario is on board.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	JAKESAM (MLU)	9/2	6/1
2	SURREY STAR	5/2	3/1
3	KING COLA	17/1	21/1
4	THE FLYING WHIZZER	8/1	10/1
6	MAJOR ART	2/1	5/2
7	INSCRUTABLE	5/1	6/1

(9^th) Exacta box 1-9, 9-1 and/or trifectas (two tickets) $5 1-9 w/ 1-9 w/ 5-7-8-10; $3 1-9 w/ 5-7-8-10 w/ 1-9

Hendricks’ stablemates EL GRAN MATADOR and TWOATTEN TENATTWO should dominate the running here. ‘TWO is much faster early than ‘MATADOR, but the latter should like the move and added distance of 7 furlongs. They trained together on Apr. 4 and both looked extra sharp in the team drill garnering B+ grades from Andy. I’ll play the race that way, not looking for miracles.

#	HORSE	FAIR	VERY GOOD BET AT >
1	EL GRAN MATADOR	7/2	9/2
5	JAKEY BOY	9/1	11/1
7	CUT N’ DEAL	7/1	9/1
8	WARREN’S WILD THING MLU	8/1	10/1
9	TWOATTEN TENATTWO	2/1	5/2
10	GAELIC GLORY	5/1	6/1

PICK THREE (4-5-6) 1-3 w/ 1 w/ 1-3